STOXTRENDS

WPIL

2012-03-02T09:08:00.001+05:30

VALUE PICK FROM INDIAN STOCK MARKETS: WPIL - RE ENTER: I have recommended a BUY on WPIL on 20th July 2011 at Rs.187 ( Old Posting HERE ) and profit booking at Rs.300+ on 15 February 2012 ( HERE ...

Deficit and Global Factors to Pull Down Growth

2012-02-29T08:38:00.003+05:30

We further revise downward our growth expectations as India’s fiscal condition worsens along with the global economic environment. With exports expected to slow faster than imports, the current account deficit (CAD) could touch 3.3% of GDP in FY2012. With the current government mired in various controversies, policy paralysis has gripped the country, stalling much-needed reforms. The recent decision to liberalize the retail sector has met with strong opposition, further impacting business sentiment. We believe that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has come to the end of its rate hike cycle, as inflation has peaked. From December onward, inflation will start softening and the RBI will make its first easing move during Q2 2012.

SBIN

2012-02-24T10:00:00.000+05:30

words of wisdom

2012-02-21T20:10:00.003+05:30

nifty weekly

2012-02-14T19:28:00.002+05:30

nifty rally is 7week old

if go back to weekly chart nifty rallied for 9 weeks starting from feb 11,2010

sensex

2012-02-13T18:18:00.002+05:30

1.sideways consolidation or topping pattern will be decided in few days

2.Tops take time to form, they are process. Bottoms are event, printed in short time frames.

a comment by peter schiff on degrees

2012-02-02T17:46:00.001+05:30

A Lot Of Americans Have Degrees But Haven`t Any Really Marketable Skills

We may have a lot of degrees (in the USA), it does not mean we are actually educated. Just because you get a degree does not mean you know anything. In fact a lot of Americans have degrees but haven`t any really marketable skills. - in RT.com

link

similar is the trend in india too

nifty trend near 200 dma

2012-02-01T11:48:00.001+05:30

nifty`s behaviour near 200 dma is more important for traders

Watch out for the following move in Nifty to confirm the up/down trend...

1) Gap-up opening & closing 50pts higher - This is the perfect case for sign of strength and if we see a gap-up & closing higher on increasing volume, it confirms the uptrend and one can initiate the long position in nifty for non stop target of 5350-5400 at least.

2) Gap-down opening & closing 50pts lower - This is the perfect case of trend reversal. Last time also nifty was not able to stay above 5200 and we have seen sharp decline only to recover one day later. If it falls again and closes 50 odd points then it may not be in a mood to go up and traders can very well wait for the next day to confirm the downtrend. Nifty must close at least 3 days in a row to confirm the downtrend for a target of 4800.

3) Flat opening and closing 10-20pts up/down - This shows no demand bar, flat day on high volume is very bad. This is also a sign of weakness ahead.

SUZLON ENERGY -- BUY

2012-01-22T17:18:00.000+05:30

VALUE PICK FROM INDIAN STOCK MARKETS: SUZLON ENERGY -- BUY: A BUY recommendation on Suzlon Energy at this point of time may raise the eyebrows of many of my readers.But I feels the risk rewa...

NF

2012-01-17T13:47:00.002+05:30

BULLS are looking tired

trying few shorts................

nifty charts and observations

2012-01-16T17:00:00.002+05:30

in daily charts nifty is oscillating around the 50 day sma

on hourly charts NF is forming a raising wedge with supports at 4858 and 4815 and with resistance around4929

charts & thoughts

2012-01-13T06:40:00.001+05:30

Nifty futures

2012-01-10T14:49:00.001+05:30

NF is getting bullish,encounters resistance @ 4880

sbin

2012-01-03T11:04:00.004+05:30

sbin is in consolidation(inside day pattern) in weekly charts

SBIN has made a breakout from inside day pattern in daily charts

cross of recent pivot high of 1692 will impart more bullish ness

Nifty

2012-01-03T05:47:00.002+05:30

nifty showing +ve signs in eod charts.cross of 4653&4656 will bring some cheers to bulls

gold

2011-12-31T07:23:00.002+05:30

Gold is witnessing selling in dollar terms and after many days it has closed below 50day SMA

SUPPORTS @ 1524, 1478 & 1314

Reliance

2011-12-30T13:11:00.000+05:30

reliance is forming a base around 700

nifty - reversal ahead

2011-12-28T11:07:00.003+05:30

nifty selling seems to be resuming

break of 4695 in NF will confirm it

charts and obsercations

2011-12-23T14:44:00.001+05:30

nifty saw a mild recovery this week

late selling on friday makes the recovery suspicious

be hedged

nifty

2011-12-22T05:33:00.002+05:30

oversold markets has shown a sharp bounce

nifty has made a breakout in hourly timeframe and nifty has to do a lot in eod .weekly and monthly timeframes to get into further bullishness

nifty charts and observations

2011-12-20T14:12:00.003+05:30

we have been selling from 5130 area and nifty has corrected more than 10 percent

now looking for long opportunities (risky bet now)

2011-12-19T19:18:00.001+05:30

nifty has formed bullish hammer in EOD charts.aggressive traders can go long with today's low as stoploss

alsthom projects- accumulate

2011-12-19T12:50:00.004+05:30

ALSTOM Projects India Limited is an India-based company. The Company’s business includes a range of activities activities engineering, procurement, manufacturing, construction and servicing of power plants and power equipments and transportation systems covering traction, signaling and train control for the railways and metros. The Company operates in two segments: Power and Transport. The Power segment is engaged in the business of engineering, procurement and construction of power plants. It also manufactures steam raising plant, ancillary equipment, parts of steam generator, pressures vessels and pulverizers. The Transport segment is engaged in the business of designing, manufacturing, supplying and supporting large scale transportation systems including traction, signaling and train control. The Company has investment in ALSTOM Power Boilers Services Limited (APBSL), which is its wholly owned subsidiary.

buy this scrip on dips with longterm outlook of 5 years and more

nifty charts and thoughts

2011-12-15T10:29:00.002+05:30

4620-4720 is the major support band for nifty in weekly charts

nifty has bounced many times from the support area

nifty charts and thoughts

2011-12-12T14:52:00.004+05:30

today nifty gapped up by around 20 points and nifty has been drifting since the open

15m ORB trading system helps in gauging the direction of the market

nifty

2011-12-09T10:42:00.002+05:30

on Wednesday nifty made shooting star pattern in eod charts

and that was the perfect place of reversal

nifty

2011-12-09T10:42:00.001+05:30

on Wednesday nifty made shooting star pattern in eod charts

and that was the perfect place of reversal

hi-tech gears

2011-12-07T05:13:00.001+05:30

Hi-Tech Gears is one of the largest manufacturers of auto components in India .Its product list includes Precision forging components,Engine Components and two wheeler parts.Company is a major supplier to Hero Motocorp,Honda Motors,Tata Motors,Caterpillar, Cummins..etc.It is also in export market and recorded a jump of 80% in exports in last financial year.Now company is developing some new products and also adding new markets like Brazil and U K. Company's management is share holder friendly and paying good dividend and issuing liberal bonus in regular interval.For the financial year ended March 2011 , Company posted a turnover of Rs.427 Cr and a net profit of Rs.35 cr .In the latest September quarter Sales were Rs.118 Cr and net profit were Rs.10 Cr .At current market price of Rs.121, Hi-Tech Gear is one of the safest bet from auto component sector.

from:valupicks

inside day

2011-12-07T05:06:00.001+05:30

nifty has formed an inside day pattern in daily charts,breakout in either direction will give us the short term trend in nifty

bailout........

2011-12-01T11:14:00.002+05:30

Central banks of U.S,JAPAN,CANADA,SWITZERLAND & U.K have agreed to provide cheaper loans to ailing european banks have cheared up the global stock markets

bailout by the central banks have largely failed in the last 2 years and have ended in frustration

todays upmove is technically a bear trap and there is a high possibility of lower top in indian markets

expect the down move to start sooner or later

charts and observations

2011-11-30T05:12:00.004+05:30

in hourly charts nifty future has broken the pivot low of 4805

to keep bullish hopes alive NF should break past the recent pivot high of 4885

nifty has formed a dark cloud cover pattern in daily charts indicating bearishness ahead

breakout from inside day

2011-11-28T15:30:00.003+05:30

inside day pattern in daily charts coupled with oversold markets and positive divergence in hourly oscillators have made a huge breakout

i have already been saying 4720-4620 is agood support area

What Does Inside Day Mean?

A candlestick formation that occurs when the entire daily price range for a given security falls within the price range of the previous day. Inside day often refers to all versions of the harami pattern and can be very useful for spotting changes in the direction of a trend.

Investopedia explains Inside Day

An inside day is often used to signal indecision because neither the bulls nor the bears are able to send the price beyond the range of the previous day. If an inside day is found at the end of a prolonged downtrend and is located near a level of support, it can be used to signal a bullish shift in trend. Conversely, an inside day found near the end of a prolonged uptrend may suggest that the rally is getting exhausted and is likely to reverse.

Sundaram Brake Linings

2011-11-26T19:43:00.002+05:30

Sundaram Brake Linings is a major producer of friction material, consisting of brake linings, blocks, disc pads and clutch facings that are used in automobiles.Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors are the major customers of this chennai based TVS group company.SBL is also exporting its products to various countries and almost 40 % of its income is from exports.Enthused by the increasing demand,recently company started a new production facility in SEZ, Mahindra World City ,Tamilnadu.Now company's all manufacturing plants are producing ASBESTOS-FREE products which will help to increase its exports.

Sundaram Brake Linings was an outperformer from TVS Group till 2008.Its share price never came down below Rs.400 Mark during 2005-2007 period.But it crashed from a level of Rs.440 to just Rs.98/- in 2008 alone .These type of crashes in share price are common today because of share pledging by promoters or various type of frauds.But nobody is expecting such actions from one of the most conservative group from South India - the TVS Group .There was nothing wrong with the Sales and profitability of this company but a special reason for this poor performance of stock price.SBL is a victim of mis-selling of complex derivative products by banks which came to light during 2008.Many other companies like Rajshree Sugar,Precot Meridian..etc are also in news related with such transactions during the mentioned period.Anyway , their efforts to protect from foreign exchange fluctuation ends in huge losses for SBL.Then the company filed cases against these banks and at last it ends in an out of court settlement.As per the terms company is liable to pay only one tenth of the actual loss .Now, company is making provisions in each quarter for this payment and the said amount is mentioned as extraordinary item in the published results.An amount of Rs.5.60 Cr provided last year under this head .After this provision company made a net profit of Rs.6.30 Cr in 2010-11.EPS for last year including special provision is Rs.16 and that excluding this provision is more than Rs.30/-.Even in a tough time for auto parts makers, last quarter company improved its performance.This special provisioning will end in next 18 months starts from September 2011 onwards (in March 2013). The true picture of this company's earnings will reflect in its financial result only thereafter.Company having very small equity base of just Rs. 3.93 Cr and consistently paying dividend of 40 % or more for the past many years. Actually it was more than 125% each before 2008 incident .Considering the Cyclical nature of auto and auto ancillary business and the trend in interest rate , 2013 may be a good year for this sector.After the end of this provisioning , I feels the market will realize the true picture of this company and it will go back to its past glory.At current market price of Rs.155/- it is even quoting very below its book value of Rs.250/-.Company 's debt equity ratio is just 0.38 and not even a single share is pledged by the promoters. Those who are willing to show some patience , this is one of the best bet from this sector @ Rs.155/-

from:valuepicks

Trader`s - keep in mind

2011-11-26T19:27:00.001+05:30

• Buying a weak stock is like betting on a slow horse. It is retarded.
• Stocks are only cheap if they are going higher after you buy them.
• Never trust a person more than the market. People misjudge, the market does not.
• Controlling losers is a must; let your winners run out of control.
• Simplicity in trading demonstrates wisdom. Complexity is the sign of inexperience.
• Have loyalty to your family, your dog, your team. Have no loyalty to your stocks.
• Emotional traders want to give the disciplined their money.
• Trends have counter trends to shake the weak hands out of the market.
• The market is usually efficient and can not be beat. Exploit inefficiencies.
• To beat the market, you must have an edge.
• Being wrong is a necessary part of trading profitably. Admit when you are wrong.
• If you do what everyone is doing you will be average, so goes the definition.
• Information is only valuable if no one knows about it.
• Lower your risk till you sleep like a baby.
• There is always a reason why stocks go up or down, we usually only learn the reason when it is too late.
• Trades that make a lot of intellectual sense are likely to be losers.
• You do not have to be right more than you are wrong to make money in the market.
• Don't worry about the trades that you miss, there will always be another.
• Fear is more powerful than greed and so down trends are sharper than up trends.
• Analyze the people, not the stock.
• Trading is a dictators’ game; you can not trade by committee.
• The best traders are the ones who do not care about the money.
• Do not think you are smarter than the market, you are not.
• For most traders, profits are short term loans from the market.
• The stock market can not be predicted, we can only play the probabilities.
• The farther price is from a linear trend, the more likely it is to correct.
• Learn from your losses, you paid for them.
• The market is cruel, it gives the test first and the lesson afterward.
• Trading is simple but it is not easy.
• The easiest time to make money is when there is a trend.

nifty charts and thoughts

2011-11-23T08:20:00.002+05:30

nifty has formed inside day pattern in daily charts and has closed at the lower end of the bar yesterday

as SGX nifty suggests nifty is expected to break downside of the inside day pattern and earlier support of 4700

settlement issues are expected to drag the nifty down till tomorrow

shorts should be avoided now as the markets are oversold

on the weekend day a bounce with short covering is expected

dowjones

2011-11-21T20:10:00.003+05:30

DOWJONES 4 HOUR CHART

dow is neer to the support band 11556-11656

but my feeling is that support may not hold

Keys To Success

2011-11-21T09:13:00.001+05:30

1. Do not let others do your thinking for you

2. Focus on what you like

3. Good habits for life & investing

4. Common sense? not so common

5. Attention to details is what separates success from failure

6. Let the world be a part of your perspective

7. Learn philosophy & learn to think

8. Learn history

9. Understand your weaknesses & acknowledge your mistakes

10. Recognize change & embrace it

11. Look to the future

12. “Lady Luck smiles on those who continue their efforts”

13. Remember that nothing is really new

14. Know when not to do anything

15. Pay attention to what everybody else neglects

16. If anybody laughs at your idea view it as a sign of potential success

reversal on sight?????

2011-11-19T07:18:00.003+05:30

nifty has formed a bullish hammer in daily charts

there could be a short term reversal in nifty

buy with stop loss of friday`s low

where is the support?

2011-11-18T04:40:00.002+05:30

nifty is witnessing a mammoth selling pressure for past few sessions

now nifty has broken all the support in daily and hourly charts

major support for nifty is around 4620-4720 band in weekly charts

but the current market situations looks the support of 4620-4720 may not hold

click here to view my earlier post

Quotes

2011-11-16T19:20:00.002+05:30

Success has nothing to do with how many technical indicators you know or how many screens you use on your trading. Nor with how many trading books you have read. You have to build your own success every single day of your life.

Success in trading (and in life) is just like in professional sports. Don`t make excuses.

"Unless you're willing to have a go, fail miserably, and have another go, success won't happen."

"It is our attitude at the beginning of a difficult task which, more than anything else, will affect It's successful outcome."

nifty views

2011-11-15T04:46:00.003+05:30

1.Support(support) around 5200 broken

2.bearish engulfing in daily charts

3.20DMA also broken

4.next major support is at 50DMA

nifty charts and obsevations

2011-11-11T10:36:00.002+05:30

WEEKLY:

weekly support around 5160

lower high and lower low in weekly candle

DAILY:

Break down from the uptrendling line and 20 DAY SMA

50 DAY SMA @5066 will render support

HOURLY:

Up-trending line broken

support around 5135

nifty charts and thoughts

2011-11-08T13:53:00.003+05:30

nifty still maintining the positive mpmmentum in larger timeframes,while smaller timeframes are losing stream

various supports for nifty exists @ 5266,5180,5135,5050

charts and obseravtions

2011-11-04T11:32:00.001+05:30

as greece is about accept the european union bailout plan without referendum

all stock markets are in festive mood so is ours also

nifty supports

2011-11-03T12:54:00.004+05:30

nifty has various support @5225,5125 and 5035

1.5225 - up trendline

2.5125 - 20 day SMA and trendline joining earlier pivot highs

3.5032- 50 day sma

nifty

2011-11-01T11:07:00.003+05:30

1.with recent gap-up of about 150 points nifty has moved above all the pivots in daily chart

2.nifty is trading above the short and medium term moving averages and they have given a crossover

3.all this implicates a turn-around in market,so traders a can use the dips to go long in nifty futures with proper stop-loss and risk management

4.for further more bullishness nifty should cross 5500 decisively, a close below 5250 will impart bearsiness

nifty charts and thoughts

2011-10-28T13:22:00.003+05:30

nifty has given a positive breakout for the short term

a monthly close above 5500 will be more bullish

nifty hourly

2011-10-24T10:56:00.002+05:30

This has been the chart i have bben viewing since august(the day when S&P downgraded U.Sdebt rating)

breakout from either side of the trendline(major range5200-4700) will determine the trend

nifty weekly

2011-10-20T14:38:00.002+05:30

1.On weekly charts nifty is in sideways trend with 5178 and 4708 as boundaries(rectangle) for past 11 weeks

2.nifty is forming a dark cloud cover pattern in weekly charts for confirmation nifty we had to wait till tomorrow evening 3.30pm

nifty

2011-10-19T14:01:00.001+05:30

nifty has formed island reversal pattern in daily charts

nifty charts and thoughts

2011-10-13T10:46:00.002+05:30

nifty is getting resisted exactly at the trednline resistance as said in the earlier post(http://stoxtrends.blogspot.com/2011/10/charts-and-thoughts_12.html)

in intraday chart the rising wedge pattern is clearly visible

charts and thoughts

2011-10-12T10:47:00.003+05:30

nifty continues to trade between the gap area of 5230 and recent pivot low of 4700

NF has a trendline s/r at 5145 and 4718

in intra-day charts nf has formed a rising wedge with support @ 5000-5020

nifty uptrend seems to lose the steam

europe credit ratings

2011-10-10T10:44:00.001+05:30

nifty weekend charts and thoughts

2011-10-08T12:09:00.003+05:30

nifty is in broader range of 5200-4700 for more than month

yesterdays gap-up has not changed much in daily and weekly technical levels

but however for a swing trader with hourly and half-hourly time frames, yesterdays gap up has forced them to cover their short

charts and thoughts

2011-10-04T11:25:00.005+05:30

nifty has formed a bearish island reversal in intra-day charts

NIFTY weekend charts and thoughts

2011-10-01T15:01:00.001+05:30

4700-5200 levels to wathced for break out

gold -charts and observations

2011-09-29T10:18:00.003+05:30

bullish for short term if closes above 1640 usd/ounce

nifty update

2011-09-28T12:10:00.003+05:30

nifty is forming an dark cloud cover pattern in daily charts (strong chances of reversal from here)

a close above today`s high will invalidate the pattern

break of yesterdays gap is a confirmation for short trades

nifty

2011-09-27T12:07:00.004+05:30

Break of 5165-4758 will set in the short term trend in nifty

silver

2011-09-26T11:52:00.001+05:30

silver is testing the support band and likely to take support here, sharp bounces can be sold

nifty where is the support

2011-09-26T11:36:00.005+05:30

high volatility is seen across all the electronocally traded instruments like equities,commodities and forex

so nifty set to test the support band of 4630 to 4730

and it is likely to break the support and it may have a free fall (like lc) below the support band

click here to view my earlier post

stock market quotes

2011-09-25T11:02:00.002+05:30

"Trade with an edge, manage risk, be consistent, and keep it simple. The basis of all successful trading can be summed up in these four core principles." - Curtis Faith

"If you lack a solid trading plan and are stressed out when you trade, you’ll naturally tend to cut your profits short and hold on to losers." - Van Tharp

"Do you know the only thing that gives me pleasure? It's to see my dividends coming in." - John D. Rockefeller

“Wharton taught you that 40 percent of a stock's price movement was due to the market, 30 percent to the sector, and only 30 percent to the stock itself, which is something that I believe is true. I don't know if the percentages are exactly correct, but conceptually the idea makes sense.” - Steve Cohen, hedge fund manager

“Charting is a little like surfing. You don't have to know a lot about the physics of the tides, resonance, and fluid dynamics in order to catch a good wave. You just have to be able to sense when it's happening and then have the drive to act at the right time.” - Ed Seykota

“There are just four kinds of bets. There are good bets, bad bets, bets that you win, and bets that you lose. Winning a bad bet can be the most dangerous outcome of all, because a success of that kind can encourage you to take more bad bets in the future. You can also lose a good bet, but if you keep placing good bets, over time, the law of averages will be working for you.” – Larry Hite

"The policy of being too cautious is the greatest risk of all." - J. Nehru

"No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than successful speculation." - Robert Rhea

gold

2011-09-25T10:41:00.004+05:30

gold is correcting sharply in USD terms,in daily charts its trading below 50 and 100 day sma`s and it is likely to test 200 day sma

on weekly chart it has broken recent pivot low and a minor trendline support,but as long as the trendline support @1500 holds bullish views are alive

to view our previous post click here

FAIR FIELD ATLAS

2011-09-25T10:35:00.004+05:30

Many of the investors are interested to invest in MNC Companies mainly because of higher level of corporate governance and better professional business approach.But price of most MNC stocks are ruling at higher level and beyond reach of an average retail investor.Still there is some exceptions like Fairfield Atlas.Fairfield Atlas Ltd. is a subsidiary of U S based Fairfield Manufacturing Co.Switzerland based Oerlikon Group is the ultimate parent of Fairfield. Automobile and Industrial Transmission Gear is the main product of the company and it also producing planetary gear boxes and planetary sub-assemblies and input adapters.Its plants are located near Kolhapur in Maharastra.Fairfield is a priority supplier to well known companies like M&M,John Deere, SAME, KAMCO, TAFE, TELCON ..etc . With the strong support of the parent ,Fairfield is generating almost 60 % of its income through exports and foreign companies like GKN,TMA..etc.are its customers.Even in a tough time in overseas markets , Fairfield is displaying satisfactory performance.Concentration in off road equipments like tractors and other agricultural machines ,heavy engineering equipments..etc may be a reason for this out performance.In order to reduce the cost of production, parent company is now more interested to source products from India.This is visible in the latest financials of Fairfield Atlas.What catching our attention at this point of time is the good performance of the company at this particular time.This is really a tough time for any engineering company which is deriving majority of Income from US market.But Fairfields performance is good even now and revival in overseas market will really help the company to perform even better.For the June qtr company posted a turnover of Rs.50 Cr v/s Rs.34 Cr and a net profit of Rs.3.70 Cr v/s Rs.2.5 Cr In the last FY company posted a net profit of Rs.18 Cr on sale of Rs.163 Cr and the EPS were Rs.6.45. Foreign promoter is holding close to 84 % stake in this company. Considering the strong marketing and financial support of the parent company Fairfield is a good low priced MNC stock to BUY for investors with long term view which is currently trading at Rs.69/-

from:http://value-picks.blogspot.com/2011/09/fairfield-atlas-growing-mnc.html?spref=tw

nifty weekly chart

2011-09-23T15:02:00.003+05:30

nifty has formed bearish engulfing with outside day pattern in weekly charts,indicating more selling ahead

invalidation of the pattern will be a close above 4963, today

Nifty intraday updates

2011-09-23T11:55:00.003+05:30

nifty 5m chart with +ve divergence in MACD & RSI no fresh shorts at current levels.a bounce in the offing,sell it

nifty charts and observations

2011-09-22T11:29:00.002+05:30

as said in prevoius post nifty got resisted

break of 5014 will set in further bearish trend

BRIC

2011-09-21T13:26:00.002+05:30

a comparative study on BRIC fiscal deficit and leading currencies.In both tables india is the poor performer

UB Engineering Ltd

2011-09-21T12:37:00.001+05:30

Penny Stock Tips - NSE BSE: UB Engineering Ltd: CMP: 54 UB Engineering Limited provides engineering services to customers specializing in the power, oil & gas, petrochemical and steel sec...

charts and readings

2011-09-20T11:46:00.002+05:30

nifty is finding resistance at falling trendline joining earlier pivot highs

Avanti Feeds Ltd - Turnaround Story

2011-09-20T08:52:00.002+05:30

Penny Stock Tips - NSE BSE: Avanti Feeds Ltd - Turnaround Story: CMP: 76 Avanti Feeds Ltd. manufactures and distributes shrimp feed. The Company also processes, packages, and exports shrimp throughout the...

weekend chart and observations

2011-09-18T12:25:00.001+05:30

TATA CHEMICALS LTD - A MUST BUY

2011-09-17T18:45:00.001+05:30

VALUE PICK FROM INDIAN STOCK MARKETS: TATA CHEMICALS LTD - A MUST BUY: Tata Chemicals is a familiar company for Indian Investors.Considering the potential of Agriculture related sectors worldwide , this c...

credit policy and equity market reactions

2011-09-15T15:05:00.002+05:30

there is huge expectation among traders regarding tomorrow`s RBI credit policy

untamable inflation is hovering around double digit mark

and there is a wide expectation that RBI will hike interest rates

but i feel that equity markets have factored a hike of 25 basis point hike in CRR AND REPO RATES

any hike of 50 basis points and above only will depress the stock market

technically market have made a base around 4900 and nifty is trading above 20 day sma of 4975

in hourly charts nifty has moved past the previous pivot high of 5040 and it now targeting 5170

real estate and auto stocks can give +ve surprises if RBI does not disappoint

charts and thoughts

2011-09-14T14:37:00.005+05:30

NIFTY DAILY CHARTS

1.falling wedge pattern in daily charts

2.trading above 20 day sma

3.bullish engulfing in nf eod charts yesterday

NIFTY 60M CHART

1.strong support @ 4900 minor trend line support @ 4936

2.broadening formation in 60m chart

my view as long as 4936,4900 are broken decisively buy the dips

charts and thoughts

2011-09-14T14:34:00.003+05:30

nifty has formed inside day (closed at upper end of the bar) pattern in daily charts

Dow could crash to 3,000 in 2013

2011-09-13T15:14:00.003+05:30

The recent gyrations in global stock markets are just the beginning, says US-based economist and author Harry Dent, who believes the Dow will fall below 10,000 in the near term before crashing to around 3,000 in 2013.

"I think the stock crash started in late April. This is just the first wave down...I think the crash really starts some time in early 2012," said the Founder and CEO of economic research company HS Dent and author of upcoming book "The Great Crash Ahead".

He pointed to the selloff during the last global financial crisis, when the Dow Jones Global Indexes lost around 8,000 points in the period between October 2007 and early 2009.

Dent based his bearish predictions squarely on the changing spending habits of global consumers.

"Baby boomers around the world, and all the developed countries - Europe, North America, Australia - they have peaked in their spending cycles...they`ve been driving up real estates prices and stock prices and the economy for decades, and now they`re going to be saving and not borrowing," Dent said.

Accentuating the problem is the deleveraging of US private debt, which has doubled to USD 42 trillion from USD 20 trillion in the last eight years, according to Dent, and is now valued at three times the size of the nation`s public debt.

"That debt is deleveraging, and that`s actually causing deflationary trends. It won`t matter how much stimulus the government throws at the system, because baby boomers with their already huge debt burdens will not want to borrow money and spend more," said Dent.

"In the Great Depression, that`s what happened - deflation came in such a deep downturn because so much debt was deleveraging."

According to Dent, the spending in the boom years has led to the biggest global real estate and credit bubble in history. He believes the worst hit will be those places where the bubble hasn`t burst yet - West Canada, Australia and China.

"Bubbles go back to where they started," he noted. US housing prices, he observed, have fallen 34% since their peak, and will drop by another 30%. "There`s a lot more pain coming, especially in real estate," said Dent, who sold his home in Miami, Florida in October 2005, and doesn`t intend to buy property until the market bottoms in a few years.

The only solution to the crisis, Dent offers, is for policy-makers to intervene and write down debt.

"You can`t deal with this crisis without dealing with the debt first because the demographics are not in your favor. So it`s the only thing you can do, by writing down debt, you free up cash flow for consumers and businesses. It`s the only thing you can do in a crisis like this after such a major debt and credit bubble."

Avoid gold, silver; buy dollars

Contrary to what most analysts are recommending, Dent advises staying cautious on gold and silver and stocking up on US dollars.

"I think gold and silver are a bubble. It`s the most dangerous place to be," Dent said. "Gold`s kind of a wild card, but what we notice it`s gone parabolic. We`ve been telling people... to get out of gold at USD 2,000."

He thinks silver has peaked at USD 50. "The last time silver went to USD 50, it crashed back to USD 4 within two years."

As the deleveraging process takes place and most asset classes fall, Dent says the one asset that will return to its safe haven status will be the greenback,

"Debts get written off. That destroys dollars. It makes the dollars more scarce. It restores its value."

FROM:

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/international-markets/dow-could-crash-to-30002013-author_585445.html

With crisis in EU countries becoming dangerous and with that PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain)sitting on $3 tr debt coming for the default the figure that comes out is $3 tr and that is much bigger then the Lehman Br which was around $600 bn.
In that circumataces I fear that Indian Market can also go lower and come to 15k or even lower.
But the beficiaries will be Asia and among them notably would be China, India and Korea.
Let the things unfold in next 3-6 months and we will see our market making a bottom.What bottom we will see is hard to predict but after that the inflows will come in economies like India where the growth is there and there is no danger of any default like PIIGS.
But the advantage is India, China and other Asian countries like Korea will become safe heavens for the FII's.

nifty reversed

2011-09-12T13:45:00.003+05:30

due to some personal commitments i could not post on last few days

i have written about the nifty reversal in the earlier post

nifty on break of 5085 has crashed to 4900 levels

expecting more selling is on the off

reversal ahead??????

2011-09-08T14:36:00.003+05:30

nifty 30 chart

oscillators showing neagative divergence in 30m charts

nifty daily chart

we have a gap resistance at 5232

longs tighten stops

my view short below :5085

gold

2011-09-07T13:36:00.005+05:30

Gold daily chart

gold 4 hour chart

gold 60m chart

gold has reacted sharply as said in my earlier post

break of 1811,1766 will be further bearish

nifty

2011-09-07T05:41:00.003+05:30

nifty has formed outside day with bullish engulfing pattern in daily charts.20dma is also scaled

nifty intraday update

2011-09-06T12:46:00.003+05:30

nifty eod chart

nifty down-trending channel with resistance @5000-5020

nifty 15m chart

nifty in a down-trending channel (a flag pattern also)

gold

2011-09-06T10:25:00.002+05:30

GOLD WEEKLY CHART

GOLD is moving in a up-trending channel in weekly chart and it is currently encountering a resistance around 1925-1930

GOLD DAILY CHART

oscillator, RSI is developing a negative divergence in daily charts

longs have your stops tight ..........

CHARTS AND THOUGHTS

2011-09-05T14:51:00.003+05:30

charts with my levels on upside and downside

UPSIDE:5030,5060

DOWNSIDE:4972,4964,4920

CURRENTLY I AM NOW SHORT IN NF

S&P 500

2011-09-02T20:26:00.002+05:30

s&p 500 in a falling channel

nifty charts and thoughts

2011-09-02T14:38:00.002+05:30

nifty daily chart

nifty has got resisted at 20 day moving average of 5036

nifty half hourly chart

uptrend comes to question when nifty breaks 4885-4925 band

nifty head and shoulder

2011-09-01T05:34:00.001+05:30

Nifty has formed a head and shoulder pattern in intra-day chart, with academic target of 5205

Charts and thoughts

2011-08-31T07:41:00.002+05:30

nifty retracing the steep fall,expecting a rally to 5200

nifty monthly

2011-08-30T11:23:00.003+05:30

as said earlier, bearish engulfing in july month has erased nifty gains by 9.3 percent this month

to view my earlier post click here

today is the last trading session of this month

nifty and sensex

2011-08-29T14:58:00.002+05:30

as said in the previous post nifty has got a good rally today

expecting some-more upside with choppiness

no fresh buying....

looking for points to short in coming days...

weekend charts and observations

2011-08-28T15:31:00.003+05:30

nifty weekly

nifty daily

nifty 4 hours

nifty hourly

close to support area of 4620 and selling venture is already 5 weeks old

with +ve divergence in hourly expecting a smart short covering rally upside

no fresh short at current values

happy trading

nifty weekly -where is the support?

2011-08-26T13:02:00.003+05:30

4600 -4720 is the major support as mentioned in the above nifty weekly chart

gold

2011-08-25T12:29:00.002+05:30

30 M chart

4 hour chart

yesterday`s sell-off in gold has brougt it to support area coupled with positive divergence in RSI of 30m chart

expect a bounce or sideways movement from the area

inside day

2011-08-24T15:28:00.002+05:30

sensex

2011-08-24T14:44:00.000+05:30

sensex 4 hours chart

sensex in fallin channel ,need to b reak 16450 for bullisgness

WEBSOL ENERGY SYSTEMS LTD

2011-08-24T05:37:00.001+05:30

VALUE PICK FROM INDIAN STOCK MARKETS: WEBSOL ENERGY SYSTEMS LTD- REPEAT: I have recommended a BUY on WEBSOL ENERGY SYSTEMS @ Rs.59 on 24/02/2010.After hitting a high of Rs.92/- in March, now it is trading around R...

charts and readings

2011-08-23T11:00:00.001+05:30

The Silver Lining for Markets and the U.S. Economy

2011-08-22T15:23:00.001+05:30

The Silver Lining for Markets and the U.S. Economy

By Frank Holmes
CEO and Chief Investment Officer
U.S. Global Investors

Call it choppy, volatile, fickle or lively, market action continued to disappoint this week. Frightened investors pulled out more than $40 billion from long-term mutual funds for the week ended August 10, according to the Investment Company Institute.

The eurozone crisis fueled the outflows as economic growth figures for several eurozone countries disappointed—a hard trend to break given the austerity measures being implemented. Relatively, U.S. stocks have only suffered a fraction of the pain (down roughly 5 percent year-to-date as of August 16) felt by investors in the U.K. (down 9.2 percent), Germany (down 13.2 percent), France (down 15.1 percent) and Italy (21.9 percent).

Given this landscape, the International Strategy and Investment Group (ISI) lowered its forecast for global growth to 2.5 percent in 2012. That’s down from the 4-5 percent growth level many were estimating.

There is a silver lining: Despite all the negative news out there, the global economy will continue to grow.

In fact, the U.S. economy has had several positive developments recently. The four-week average for unemployment claims dropped to 402,000 during the week ending August 13. There is still a large chunk of America unable to find a job, but that group has shrunk 13 percent since August 2010 and is about 40 percent of peak 2009 levels.

Many S&P 500 companies have leveraged strong economic growth in emerging markets and a weaker U.S. dollar into higher profits. Second-quarter 2011 earnings for companies in the S&P 500 Index have been superb with nearly 71 percent of company earnings beating expectations, per ISI.

According to Citigroup, this continues a trend established in 2010 when year-over-year earnings for the S&P 500 were up more than 38 percent, more than double the historical average during the first full year following a recession.

In addition, the strong earnings report is across all sectors. These companies are also sitting on nearly the largest cash cushions as a percent of market capitalization (about 11 percent) we’ve seen in 20 years, Citigroup says. Markets have historically bottomed when cash as a percentage of market cap reaches 9 percent.

We’ve also seen a surge in U.S. money supply (M2). ISI says M2 has surged $460 billion (about 5 percent—38 percent on an annualized rate) over the past eight weeks. Though the rise is largely due to a plunge in institutional money funds, increased money supply means more funds are available to be lent out, pushing down borrowing rates. Access to this “cheap capital” can increase confidence and entice businesses to put cash to work.

Around the globe, two recent bright spots have been Taiwan and Russia. Taiwan’s equity market is technology heavy, says BCA Research, and the market’s performance tends to track the global information technology sector, not global markets. BCA says that Taiwan is set to outperform because “after two decades of stagnation, domestic demand has been showing signs of reviving…[and] equity/currency valuations remain attractive.” In Russia, strong cash positions and subdued credit flows since 2008 mean Russia’s “equity and credit markets are likely to outperform in the months ahead,” BCA says.

Those investors who have been waiting for a bounce in the markets may not have to wait too long. We mentioned last week that the S&P 500 has historically experienced strong upward moves after the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) reaches extreme levels. Research from Citigroup backs up this assertion, showing the average return for the S&P 500 is 5.5 percent (three months), 9.4 percent (six months) and 18.9 percent (12 months) following a breach of the 35-40 on the VIX.

The Neverending Story of a "Gold Bubble"

Gold continued to make headlines this week, reaching nearly $1,900 an ounce on Friday before resting around the $1,850 level. Gold’s 15 percent rise to new nominal highs over the past month has rekindled “gold bubble” talk from many pundits. Long-term gold bulls have been forced to listen to these naysayers since gold reached $500 an ounce. If you would have joined their groupthink then, you would’ve missed gold’s roughly 270 percent rise since.

That said, gold is due for a correction. It would be a non-event to see a 10 percent drop in gold. This would actually be a healthy development for markets by shaking out the short-term speculators while the long-term story remains on solid ground.

Forty years ago this week, President Richard Nixon “closed the gold window,” ending the gold-backed global monetary system established at the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944 and kicking off a decade of stagflation for the U.S. economy.

At the time, $1 would buy 1/35th an ounce of gold. Today, $1 will net you about 1/1,178th an ounce of gold. Put differently, “One U.S. dollar now buys only 2 cents worth of the gold it could buy in 1971,” says Gold Stock Analyst. This means that consumers have lost roughly 98 percent of their purchasing power compared to gold over the past 40 years.

The U.S. dollar isn’t the only asset gold has outperformed during recent decades. The yellow metal has also seen periods of relative strength against the S&P 500. This chart from Gold Stock Analyst pits the performance of gold bullion against the S&P 500 since 1971—you can see that gold immediately rallied following Nixon’s announcement before peaking at $850 an ounce in 1980. At that price, one ounce of gold was 7.6 times greater than the S&P 500, according to Gold Stock Analyst. Gold’s relative performance then declined for the next 20 years, with the S&P 500 taking the lead in 1992 and peaking at 5.3 times the value of gold in 1999. Currently, gold’s value is roughly 1.6 times greater than the S&P 500.

What drove gold’s relative underperformance from 1980 to 1999? It was a shift in government policies, which have historically been precursors to change—a key tenant of our investment process here at U.S. Global Investors.

Gold Stock Analyst points out that Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker began steering the U.S. economy toward positive real interest rates in 1980 and Volcker’s goal was met in 1992—the same year the S&P 500 overtook gold.

In order for gold’s relative value to return to 1979-1980 peak levels of 7.6 times the S&P 500, Gold Stock Analyst’s John Doody says gold prices would have to hit the $10,000 mark. Obviously that scenario is unlikely, but it does put all this “gold bubble” nonsense into perspective.

One point to pop the “gold bubble” talk is that negative real interest rates are poised to stick around for a while. We’ve previously discussed that negative real interest rates—one of the main drivers of the Fear Trade—have historically been a miracle elixir for higher gold prices. The magic number for real interest rates is 2 percent. That’s when you can earn more than 2 percent on a U.S. Treasury bill after discounting for inflation. Our research has shown that commodities tend to perform well when rates fall below 2 percent.

Take gold and silver, for example, which have historically appreciated when the real interest rate dips below 2 percent. Additionally, the lower real interest rates drop, the stronger the returns tend to be for gold. On the other hand, once real interest rates rise above the 2 percent mark, you start to see negative year-over-year returns for both gold and silver.

It’s important to point out that it’s the political policies not political parties that drive this phenomenon. During the 1990s, when President Clinton was in office, there was a budget surplus and investors could earn more on Treasury bills (about 3 percent) than the inflationary rate (about 2). This gave investors little incentive to embrace commodities such as gold, and prices hovered around $250 an ounce.

Since 2001, increased regulation in all aspects of life, negative real interest rates, welfare and entitlement expansion funded with increased deficit spending have created an imbalance in America’s economic system. It’s this disequilibrium between fiscal and monetary policies that drives gold to outperform in a country’s currency. Today, the Fed capped interest rates near zero back in 2008 and the federal budget deficit has ballooned to $1.4 trillion. In fact, both the deficit as a percentage of GDP (negative 11 percent) and federal government debt as a percentage of GDP (nearly 65 percent) are at the highest levels since 1950, Citigroup research shows. This has helped fuel gold’s rise through $1,000, $1,500 and now $1,800 an ounce.

This is only one side of gold’s long-term story. Another point to pop the “gold bubble” talk is that we’re entering what has historically been gold’s strongest period of the year in terms of demand. In the past, gold prices have bottomed in August but recently gold’s strong seasonal period has extended into the dog days of summer as the holy Muslim holiday of Ramadan moves forward on the calendar by 10 days each year. This year Ramadan began August 1.

In its latest Gold Demand Trends report, the World Gold Council (WGC) confirmed that the Love Trade is burning bright in Asia. The WGC council said Chinese and Indian buyers continue to be the “predominant drivers” of gold demand, accounting for “52 percent of bars and coins and 55 percent of jewelry demand.” China’s demand grew 25 percent, while India saw an increase of 38 percent. WGC attributes this growth to “increasing levels of economic prosperity, high levels of inflation and forthcoming key gold purchasing festivals.”

But China and India aren’t the only emerging markets feeling the love for gold. Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand – labeled by the WGC as the “VIST” countries – are additional key gold-consuming countries.

The WGC’s chart below shows a potential opportunity in increased demand for gold, especially in jewelry, in the VIST countries. In 2010, demand rose to 253 tons after a sharp drop in 2009. Jewelry demand, however, was historically low while investment demand grew considerably.

Similar to China and India, the VIST countries have had a 2,000-year long relationship with gold which is intertwined in their culture, religion and economy. Jewelry and investment demand are one and the same, says the WGC: “The demand for gold as a store or accumulator of wealth, as an auspicious gift or as insurance against unforeseen risks, is to a large extent independent of the form it takes.”

This strong tie to gold means that, as wealth among residents of Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand increases, price is less of a consideration, and gold will continue to be at the top of their shopping lists.

At some point in the future gold prices will fall, that’s for certain. However, don’t expect it to happen soon. We believe the one-two punch of the Fear Trade and Love Trade will keep gold prices at elevated levels for another few years

From : http://advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/global_081911a.php

charts and readings

2011-08-22T13:48:00.003+05:30

silver and quotes

2011-08-20T14:15:00.003+05:30

“I think anything in the low $30’s represents a pretty good entry point for people to buy...Once we go through $50...I see silver going to $200 an ounce. I own a lot of silver personally because of that outlook.” - in KWNews

Peter Schiff`s comments on the economy, stock markets, politics and gold

STOXTRENDS

WPIL

Deficit and Global Factors to Pull Down Growth

read more from here

SBIN

words of wisdom

nifty weekly

sensex

a comment by peter schiff on degrees

A Lot Of Americans Have Degrees But Haven`t Any Really Marketable Skills

nifty trend near 200 dma

SUZLON ENERGY -- BUY

NF

nifty charts and observations

charts & thoughts

Nifty futures

sbin

Nifty

gold

Reliance

nifty - reversal ahead

charts and obsercations

nifty

nifty charts and observations

alsthom projects- accumulate

nifty charts and thoughts

nifty charts and thoughts

nifty

nifty

hi-tech gears

inside day

bailout........

charts and observations

breakout from inside day

Sundaram Brake Linings

Trader`s - keep in mind

nifty charts and thoughts

dowjones

Keys To Success

reversal on sight?????

where is the support?

Quotes

nifty views

nifty charts and obsevations

nifty charts and thoughts

charts and obseravtions

nifty supports

nifty

nifty charts and thoughts

nifty hourly

nifty weekly

nifty

nifty charts and thoughts

charts and thoughts

europe credit ratings

nifty weekend charts and thoughts

charts and thoughts

NIFTY weekend charts and thoughts

gold -charts and observations

nifty update

nifty

silver

nifty where is the support

stock market quotes

gold

FAIR FIELD ATLAS

nifty weekly chart

Nifty intraday updates

nifty charts and observations

BRIC

UB Engineering Ltd

charts and readings

Avanti Feeds Ltd - Turnaround Story

weekend chart and observations

TATA CHEMICALS LTD - A MUST BUY

credit policy and equity market reactions

charts and thoughts

charts and thoughts

Dow could crash to 3,000 in 2013

nifty reversed